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Overcoming the fluctuations from the global economic landscape and internal constraints in 2023, Vietnam's economy continued its trajectory of recovery, with inflation kept under control and key balances safeguarded.
Positioned among the economies with the highest GDP growth rates in both the regional and global context, Vietnam's economic performance in 2023 has set a promising stage for further advancements.
In 2024, Vietnam cannot escape the impacts of global challenges and domestic constraints. However, the signs of economic recovery are becoming increasingly evident. The revival is being driven by various factors, including the global shift in supply chains and investment flows, the reopening of the Chinese market, significant growth in services and consumption, robust public investment, ample room for operating fiscal and monetary policies.
The National Assembly has aimed for a GDP growth rate between 6% and 6.5% this year, reflecting an optimistic assessment of the recovery prospects. 2024 is considered a breakthrough year in the 2021-2025 period, prompting the government, ministries, localities, and relevant agencies to exert maximum efforts toward the set target.
Numerous reputable international organisations have expressed high regard for Vietnam's achievements and prospects, predicting a rapid economic recovery in the time to come. Vietnam has consistently climbed the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO)’s global innovation ranking, rising from the 59th place in 2016 to 46th in 2023. Fitch Ratings, a renowned credit rating agency, meanwhile, upgraded Vietnam's long-term national credit rating to BB with a "stable" outlook.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast Vietnam's 2024 growth at approximately 5.8%, doubling the world average and being among the top 20 economies with the highest growth rates in the world.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank forecasts a 6% GDP growth for Vietnam this year. The Southeast Asian economy is expected to remain resilient and recover swiftly in the near future, driven by strong domestic consumption and supported by moderate inflation, accelerated disbursement of public investment, and improvements in trade activities.
A more in-depth analysis of the economic growth drivers in 2024 by Deputy Minister of Planning and Investment Tran Quoc Phuong revealed that the overall economic growth at the end of 2023 was fundamentally positive. Despite not meeting lofty expectations, given the current international and regional context, such results provide a solid foundation for pursuing the goals and tasks set for the current year. Furthermore, favourable opportunities for growth have been noticed for the country’s investment, exports, and consumption throughout 2024.
