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As Vietnam strives to become a developing country with modern industry and upper-middle income by 2030 and a high-income, developed nation by 2045, Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW dated May 4, 2025 of the Politburo on private sector development is expected to provide fresh momentum for growth model renewal.
Experts said achieving these goals requires not only rapid expansion but also deeper institutional reform, improved human resources and innovation in development governance.
High growth targets
Dr. Ly Dai Hung from the Institute of Vietnam and World Economy under the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS) noted that the 2030 target is measured by gross national income (GNI) per capita in current US dollars.
According to the World Bank, the upper-middle income threshold ranges from 4,496 USD to 13,935 USD, while Vietnam’s GNI per capita reached about 4,490 USD in 2024. Although the gap is narrowing, crossing the threshold will require sustained high growth over many years.
Since the adoption of the Doi moi (Renewal) process, Vietnam’s highest growth rate was 9.45% in 1995, close to the 10% mark, according to the National Statistics Office. Maintaining an average annual growth rate of around 10% in the coming period would therefore signal a major shift in economic structure and growth drivers.
Hung said the foundation for pursuing this target lies in Vietnam’s strong potential, ongoing economic restructuring and deepening international integration. However, the “window of opportunity” is narrowing as population ageing accelerates, making effective use of the remaining demographic dividend crucial to boosting income and productivity.
To sustain high growth, the investment-to-GDP ratio must remain high. Over the past three decades, the ratio averaged over 32%, supporting annual growth of more than 6%. Yet, meeting new targets will require improved capital efficiency and a shift from expansion to productivity gains.
Human resources are equally decisive, he stressed. Workforce quality determines the economy’s ability to absorb technology and drive innovation. Aligning education and training with market demand is essential to translate resources into tangible growth.
Hung described Resolution 68 as a key policy framework to mobilise and allocate resources more effectively. Removing bottlenecks in institutions, infrastructure and human resources would create a stronger foundation for sustained expansion, he said.
Reforming development governance model
Dr. Nguyen Cao Duc, Deputy Director of the Institute of European and American Studies under VASS, emphasised that reforming the development governance model is central to breakthrough growth.
Amid rapid digital transformation and global volatility, traditional governance approaches are no longer sufficient, he said, proposing a multi-layered integrated model based on “optimal institutional layering” to balance stability and innovation.
The model comprises four functional layers, from ensuring administrative discipline and efficiency to enhancing connectivity and reinforcing the State’s strategic leadership in development.
Vietnam has made progress in consolidating governance foundations through administrative reform, apparatus streamlining and regulatory improvements, contributing to a more favourable business environment and stronger enforcement.
Greater coordination among ministries, sectors and localities would reduce policy fragmentation and improve resource allocation, enabling more synchronised mobilisation of social resources, according to the scholar.
A core feature of the new model is the State’s enabling role. Beyond regulation, it is expected to guide long-term development, foster innovation, promote technology adoption and create conditions for private sector expansion, thereby raising total factor productivity and deepening the growth model.
Duc said Resolution 68 not only sets ambitious targets but also calls for upgrading governance capacity as Vietnam enters a new stage. Initial reforms have laid the groundwork for a more transparent, efficient and data-driven system, enhancing resilience to external shocks.
When governance operates effectively, resources will be better connected, helping lift productivity, strengthen economic resilience and move Vietnam closer to the goal of becoming a high-income developed nation by 2045.
