In the latest Vietnam At A Glance report for July, HSBC Global Research noted that, while the Omicron wave hit Vietnam at the start of 2022, the country continues to push for a sustainable economic reopening, partly thanks to its accelerated vaccination drive.
Thanks to widespread recovery, the country recorded an impressive GDP growth rate of 7.7% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year. The service sector, which has suffered from severe economic impacts, have bounced back strongly while manufacturing has continued growing and exports hit historic highs.
However, the growth forecast for 2023 was revised down to 6.3% from 6.7% due to growing risks, especially in the energy sector, according to the bank.
HSBC Global Research pointed out growing impacts of soaring energy prices. Escalating goods prices have led to trade deficit in Q2 and may worsen the current account situation, which has not already been optimistic.
On the other hand, though household consumption has recovered steadily, people’s budgets may suffer from high oil prices, thus decelerating the recent recovery speed.
Vietnam’s inflation is forecast to stand at about 3.5% this year, but it may surpass the ceiling of 4% between Q4 of 2022 and Q2 of 2023, requiring the State Bank of Vietnam begin normalising the monetary policy.
The report also stated that, Vietnam has benefited from economy reopening, and domestic demand has returned while external drivers remain favorable. However, it is necessary to stay alert to increasing growth risks, especially the ones posed by surging energy prices.
IMF forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.2% in 2023 - Vietnam - Malaysia trade witnesses positive growth
IMF forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.2% in 2023 
Vietnam - Malaysia trade witnesses positive growth 
